CategoryDecision Making

To Improve Decision Making, Focus on the Process not the Outcome

By Sean P. Murray
January 4, 2018
4 Min read
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Imagine walking through a Las Vegas casino and observing the following: A patron at the Blackjack table is dealt a 17. The gambler decides to take a hit. The dealer turns over a 4. The player wins. The dealer says to the gambler, “good decision.” But was it? Well, in this particular case the outcome was positive, but we know there was a considerable amount of luck involved. In Blackjack, when a player hits on 17 there is a much greater chance of busting (losing) than there is of...

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Leadership Lessons from Lewis & Clark

By Sean P. Murray
November 8, 2017
11 Min read
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Charles M. Russell: Lewis and Clark on the Lower Columbia From May 1804 to September 1806, two men led an expedition from St. Louis, Missouri to the Pacific Ocean and back again. The group covered over 7,000 miles, crossed the Rocky Mountains in harsh conditions, and encountered numerous Native American tribes, both friendly and hostile. They were the first people of European descent to explore this territory.  Only one man died on the journey, and that was likely from acute appendicitis. All...

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Management vs. Leadership

By Sean P. Murray
October 6, 2017
4 Min read
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I’m often asked, “what is the difference between management and leadership?”  The best answer I’ve ever heard, and the one I usually give is: Management is about doing things right.  Leadership is about doing the right thing. Like any great aphorism, it is short and memorable.  It does a decent job communicating the big concept, but it can be a little dissatisfying.  The natural follow up question is always, “yes, but how does it really work in practice?”...

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When Your Wave Comes, Ride It

By Sean P. Murray
September 15, 2017
5 Min read
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Laird Hamilton surfing Teahupoo on August 17, 2000.  Photo: Tim McKenna   On August 17, 2000, Laird Hamilton was surfing a famous break off Tahiti called Teahupoo. The break at Teahupoo already had a fierce reputation, but on this day, Laird and his friend Darrick Doerner saw a wave approaching unlike anything they had ever seen before or since.  Doerner was on a jet ski, towing Laird into the wave when the magnitude of the wave hit him: “I towed him onto this wave and it was to the...

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What We Can Learn from Jeff Bezos about Decision Making

By Sean P. Murray
June 5, 2017
5 Min read
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For the past few years Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos has shared his approach to decision making in his annual letter to shareholders. Given Amazon’s ability to innovate, and its meteoric rise to retail dominance, there is much we can learn from Bezos and his tips for better decision making. Type 1 vs. Type 2 Decisions Bezos categorizes all decisions into two types. Type 1 decisions are big, strategic and consequential. These decisions must be made very carefully and methodically. They are irreversible...

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The Man Who Beat Vegas & Wall Street

By Sean P. Murray
May 31, 2017
5 Min read
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Edward O. Thorp is not well-known outside of finance, but within the investment community he is revered like a rock star. Over two decades, Thorp recorded average annual returns of 19.1%, an incredible achievement. In his recent memoir, A Man for All Markets, Thorp tells his amazing life story, from a child of the depression through an early career as an academic and finally as a successful investor. Independent Thinking Early on Thorp developed a fiercely independent mind that guided his...

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Innovation, Risk & Failure at Pixar

By Sean P. Murray
January 30, 2017
5 Min read
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In a recent interview, Ed Catmull, the cofounder of Pixar, shares his views on risk, failure and culture. The entire interview is worthwhile, but I found Ed’s perspective on these three issues to be especially insightful and applicable to all industries. Taking Risks The nature of innovation requires risk taking. This creates a fundamental tension for leaders who are simultaneously tasked with providing clear, stable leadership and managing a process that creates something new and of...

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To Make Better Decisions, Think Independently

By Sean P. Murray
January 13, 2017
5 Min read
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Photo by Rachele Caretti, Licensed under CC by 2.0 One of the qualities shared by great decision makers is the rare ability to disregard the opinions of others and think for themselves. There is a strong gravitational pull to conform to the conventional wisdom. If you’re looking to avoid accountability or even regret (which is a powerful force in decision making), then it’s much easier to agree with the group as opposed to doing the research and analysis to make your own determination. It’s...

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Lessons from a 630-Year-Old Family Business

By Sean P. Murray
May 3, 2016
3 Min read
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The Cantina at the Antinori Winery. The Antinori family of Italy traces the founding of its family-owned wine business to 1385.  That’s 630 years and 26 generations of business continuity. Consider the risks that a business faces over a span of that period, including war, plague, economic crisis, political turmoil, family health, and sibling rivalries just to name a few.    Any one of these events could easily end a fragile family business, and many Antinori generations have faced more than one...

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3 Tips for Improving Decision Making

By Sean P. Murray
May 3, 2016
4 Min read
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You walk into the conference room for your fourth meeting of the day. It’s a cross-functional committee and you’ve been tasked with making a big decision. You’re pretty sure the committee made a decision during last week’s meeting, and you’re hopeful today’s topic is focused on execution. After all, a solution was discussed thoroughly and you felt that consensus was finally achieved. As you scan the agenda you get a sinking feeling in your gut. You realize the decision is still on the table and...

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